Jay Powell signals ‘growing confidence’ in US economy’s soft landing

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Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell suggested he was increasingly confident that the US central bank would pull off a soft landing and signalled that interest rates would fall “over time” towards a level that no longer restrains growth.

Powell struck a positive note in comments on Monday about the health of the world’s largest economy, which has weathered the worst inflation shock in decades and high interest rates without a painful rise in job losses.

The Fed chair was speaking publicly for the first time since the central bank earlier this month began its first easing cycle in more than four years with a larger-than-usual half-point cut, leaving rates at 4.75-5 per cent.

“That decision reflects our growing confidence that, with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the labour market can be maintained in an environment of moderate economic growth and inflation moving sustainably down to our objective,” he said at an event at the National Association for Business Economics.

Powell did not comment on the size of any cut when officials next meet in November, one day after the US presidential election. Rather, he stressed that if the economy evolved as expected, “policy will move over time towards a more neutral stance” — a level that neither stimulates nor restrains economic activity — with decisions made “meeting by meeting”.

Now that inflation has retreated and the economic backdrop has “set the table for further disinflation”, Powell said the Fed’s focus would be on safeguarding the labour market, which is still “solid” despite demand cooling meaningfully.

“Our goal all along has been to restore price stability without the kind of painful rise in unemployment that has frequently accompanied efforts to bring down high inflation,” Powell said on Monday.

Traders in federal funds futures markets have priced in the possibility that the central bank will again opt for a large rate reduction in roughly six weeks’ time. But a majority believe it will return to a quarter-point cadence in the future.

In an interview with the Financial Times on Friday, Alberto Musalem of the St Louis Fed endorsed the central bank reverting to cutting rates “gradually” given concerns that the economy could react “very vigorously” to looser financial conditions. A half-point reduction would however remain on the table if the labour market weakened more than expected — something his colleague Raphael Bostic of the Atlanta Fed backed on Monday.

According to the latest “dot plot” of Fed officials’ individual projections, most policymakers expected the benchmark rate to fall by another half a percentage point over the course of the two remaining meetings of the year. Almost half of the 19 officials thought the Fed should do less than that.

Policymakers also expected the federal funds rate to fall another percentage point in 2025, ending the year between 3.25 per cent and 3.5 per cent. By the end of 2026, it was estimated to fall just below 3 per cent.