Biden-Netanyahu call fails to dispel doubts over US ability to influence Israel

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Joe Biden on Wednesday pressed Benjamin Netanyahu to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Lebanon and minimise civilian casualties in Israel’s strikes against Hizbollah, even though previous calls for restraint from the US have fallen flat.

The US president and the Israeli prime minister spoke by phone for the first time in two months after a new flare-up in tensions between the two allies compounded by miscommunication over Israel’s approach to expanding conflict in the Middle East.

The conversation, which was described as “direct” and “productive” by the White House, came as US officials try to limit Israel’s response to last week’s Iranian missile attack on the country and rein in its ground offensive in the south of Lebanon.

However, there are widespread doubts over Biden’s influence over Netanyahu after the Israeli prime minister has time and again ignored Washington’s pleas for more limited military operations and increased diplomatic engagement since the war in Gaza broke out in October 2023.

Those concerns have grown more acute in recent weeks, as Israel’s military has sharply increased its attacks on Hizbollah, the Iranian proxy group operating in Lebanon, directly defying Biden’s calls for a ceasefire in the region at the UN General Assembly in New York last month.

According to the White House, Biden did not call for Israel to stop all military operations in Lebanon in his conversation with Netanyahu on Wednesday.

But he did tell the prime minister that a “diplomatic arrangement” was needed for Lebanese and Israeli civilians to return to their homes on both sides of the “blue line” — the de facto border between the countries. He also called for Israel “to minimise harm to civilians” in Lebanon, especially in the capital, Beirut.

The White House did not say whether the two leaders discussed Israel’s looming response to Iran, though the US president has warned the Israelis away from striking nuclear facilities and energy infrastructure.

But while Biden and other top US officials have repeatedly been irked and even angered by Netanyahu’s unwillingness to heed their advice, they have been unwilling to make any big changes in US policy to raise the pressure on Israel — such as an arms embargo.

“Biden has been unwilling to use his leverage over Netanyahu because of the president’s persona, policy and domestic politics, especially so close to one of the most consequential elections in modern American history,” said Aaron David Miller, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“Biden’s margin for pressuring Netanyahu contracted, [while] Netanyahu’s margin for resisting that pressure expanded,” he added.

In recent weeks, US officials have acknowledged that Israel has made what they see as tactical gains against Hizbollah in Lebanon after it killed Hassan Nasrallah, its leader, and damaged much of the group’s capacity to strike at Israel.

But Washington has also warned Israel against overplaying its hand, insisting there should be a path back to a truce.

When Netanyahu on Tuesday warned the Lebanese people in a video address to root out Hizbollah or face similar destruction to what Israel inflicted on Gaza, Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary, responded: “We cannot and will not see Lebanon turn into Gaza — into another Gaza.”

Other US officials have said Israel needs to develop a better long-term vision for its place in the Middle East.

“The challenge going forward is to turn tactical wins in battle into a strategy that secures Israel’s people and its future,” Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, said at an event at the Israeli embassy in Washington this week.

“That takes real discipline, it takes courage, it takes foresight to match the conduct of war to a clear and sustainable set of objectives. That is never easy, but it’s imperative,” he added.

But many in Washington say US diplomacy towards Israel has floundered. “US policy has been trying to both deter and de-escalate at the same time, and realistically speaking, you can most effectively do one or the other, but trying to do both seems to have limited effects in both directions,” said Jonathan Lord, an analyst at the Center for a New American Security.