Vladimir Putin meets Iran’s new president as Israel weighs retaliation

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Russian President Vladimir Putin met his new Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian for the first time on Friday, as Tehran is expected to seek Moscow’s help to upgrade its military to counter the threat of attack by Israel.

Iran is almost certain to face military retaliation for a massive missile attack on Israel on October 1, launched in support of its ally Hizbollah. Analysts say that, as part of its deterrence, Tehran is looking at Russian technology such as S-400 surface-to-air missile batteries as well as electronic warfare systems and fighter aircraft.

The meeting, on the sidelines of a gathering of central Asian leaders in Turkmenistan, comes ahead of the expected signing of a strategic agreement between Russia and Iran at a summit in Kazan later this month, which may touch on defence co-operation.

Pezeshkian, cast as a reformer who took office in July, said after meeting Putin that the two countries’ positions on global issues “are much closer than those of other states” and that they “can support each other”, state media reported.

Putin, for his part, invited Pezeshkian to Russia for a state visit. “We are actively working together on the international arena. Our assessment of events taking place in the world are often very close, even concurrent,” the Russian leader said.

Tehran has been capitalising on the rift that has emerged between Russia and the west since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, using that as an opportunity to establish a stronger strategic relationship with the Kremlin.

US and Ukrainian officials last month charged that Iran had shipped hundreds of short-range ballistic missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine. US secretary of state Antony Blinken warned that Russia would share technology in exchange, including nuclear technology.

Iran denies supplying any weapons to Russia for use against Ukraine, including missiles. It has confirmed the sale of drones but said that deal was made prior to the war.

Tehran is probably pressing Russia for advanced surface-to-air missiles similar to the US Patriot system, said Sidharth Kaushal, senior research fellow at the Royal United Service Academy in London. It would also want to obtain electronic warfare systems that can jam precision-guided munitions, he added.

Iranian military officials have previously confirmed that the Islamic Republic is also seeking to replace its ageing fleet of fighter aircraft with Russian-made Sukhoi jets. Iran’s deputy defence minister said in late 2023 that a deal had been finalised with Russia for an unspecified number of Sukhoi Su-35s, but there has been no timetable for delivery.

“Modern Russian aircraft would give them some air-to-air capability compared to the relics that the Iranians are operating,” said Kaushal, noting that its current jets are mostly from before the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Russian air defence systems would make any Israeli attack on Iran riskier for all but the most advanced fighter jets, and the 400km range of the S-400 would also put air-to-air refuelling tankers at risk, which would be necessary for any Israeli air strike on Iran, he said. Russia delivered five to six units of the S-300, the predecessor to the S-400, to Iran in 2016 in a $800mn deal.

Kaushal added, however, that Russia was unlikely to be able to spare much weaponry for Iran from its fight in Ukraine.

Hanna Notte of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Berlin also said that Russia would have to balance its relationship with Iran against other partners in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which would oppose the sale of advanced weapons to Tehran.

A number of Israeli politicians have called for an overwhelming response to Iran’s attack, which included more than 180 missiles but failed to inflict significant damage on Israel.

“Our strike will be powerful, precise and above all surprising,” Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant said this week. Washington has told Israel to avoid nuclear sites as well as energy infrastructure.

Additional reporting by Bita Ghaffari in Tehran