America’s dead heat Trump-Harris election

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Do not bet a dollar on the US election. With such narrow odds, you would need to risk many for a tiny upside. You can wager a lot, however, on America being as riven after the election as before. Whether the victor is Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, the race’s closeness stems from deep US polarisation. A big majority of American voters would walk over hot coals before voting for the other candidate. Half the country will treat the winner as a fraud. 

The last time America had an election this tight was in 2000. Those were calmer days. The Florida recount was nevertheless ended by a controversial Supreme Court ruling. Picture how such a dispute would unfold in 2024. Instead of the “Brooks Brothers riots” — where besuited Republican men flew in to disrupt the Miami-Dade County recount — militias would gather at disputed precincts. Weaponisation of election-counting is now a feature of US life. 

Only one of the four outcomes on November 5 would be likely to yield old-fashioned US governance. That would be Harris winning the White House with Democrats keeping the Senate and retaking the House of Representatives. A Democratic sweep would allow the business of governing to resume and restrict Trump’s scope to contest his defeat. But this is the least likely scenario. The presidential and House races are both toss-ups. The Senate map is heavily skewed towards Republicans. 

The second is that Harris wins the presidency but Democrats lose the Senate. Even if Democrats regained the House, Republicans could block her appointees and bills in the upper chamber — and they would. Harris’s domestic agenda would be dead on arrival. Global instability would make foreign policy an unenticing alternative. A narrow Harris victory would also increase the risk of a constitutional crisis. Hundreds of Republican lawyers are working on challenges to a Harris victory. Last weekend Trump predicted that “radical left lunatics” would steal the election. They should be handled by the national guard and “if really necessary, by the military”, he said. Unlike in 2020, Trump has no control over either. But he will use whatever tool is available to overturn a Harris victory. 

The third is that Trump regains the White House while the parties swap control on Capitol Hill — Republicans regain the Senate; Democrats recapture the House. The 2024 electoral map makes that more likely than the reverse. Either way, Trump could push through much of his agenda. Divided government always works better for Republican presidents than Democrats. But one Democrat-controlled chamber could still act as a drag on Trump’s most radical plans. 

The last scenario is a Republican trifecta. This is about as unlikely as a Harris sweep. I would give each roughly one in five odds. A Maga stranglehold on Washington would bring America into uncharted waters. All three branches of government would be in Trump’s corner. He already has the 6-3 Supreme Court on his side. The court recently ruled that America’s president has criminal immunity from almost any “official” acts, including assassinating his opponents.

You do not need to believe that Trump would go to such lengths to see the ruling as a green light to do what he wants. Without judicial or legislative brakes on his actions, Trump would take it as a sweeping licence to go after his enemies. Mark Milley, who was chairman of the joint chiefs of staff under Trump, last week described him as “fascist to the core”. Milley is one of several ex-Trump officials whom the former president has branded a traitor. Trump’s Maga appointees would use the mandate to implement Project 2025 — the Heritage Foundation’s plan to turn the US into an illiberal democracy. 

The question is what, if anything, could bring the nation’s domestic cold war to an end. Most Americans would say that the only fix is for the other side to surrender. Trump should be thrown into jail; liberals must repent of their mental disorder; and so on. There can be no splitting of difference with evil. For Trump, defeat could mean eventual jail. To Democrats, a Trump sweep could end hopes of regaining power in a fair election. 

Since each party believes the worst of the other, they are playing for keeps, not just the next four years. It is hard to look at America’s numbers, or feel its mood, and envisage an easy end to its impasse. Other democracies experience big swings in party loyalty. Almost nothing in the US — whether assassination attempts, a switch in presidential nominee or awful debate performances — moves the dial. The 2024 race is a toss-up between mutually hostile Americas. 

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