Shock poll shows Harris leading Trump in Republican-leaning Iowa

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Kamala Harris leads among likely voters in Iowa, a state Donald Trump won by more than eight points four years ago, according to a closely watched poll that suggests women voters in the Midwest could be driving a late surge in support for the Democratic vice-president.

A Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll out late Saturday showed Harris leading Trump in the Midwestern state 47 per cent to 44 per cent just days before the election.

Iowa, which holds the caucuses that kick off the presidential nominating process, had long been seen as a battleground state but has increasingly trended Republican in recent years. Trump defeated Joe Biden there by more than eight points in 2020, and the non-partisan Cook Political Report has classified the state as “solid Republican” in this year’s presidential race.

But the surprising new poll will almost certainly set off alarm bells for the Trump campaign. Harris has largely focused her efforts in the final stretch of campaigning on winning the so-called “Blue Wall” of neighbouring Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

The Des Moines Register survey was conducted by veteran non-partisan pollster J Ann Selzer, whose poll has long been seen as the “gold standard” of Iowa surveys by both Democratic and Republican political operatives.

“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” Selzer told the newspaper. “[Harris] has clearly leapt into a leading position.” 

The Iowa poll suggests Harris’s surge can be explained in part by an increase in support from independent female voters. The survey found Harris enjoyed a 13-point edge among all independents, and a 28-point lead among independent women in the state, with 57 per cent favouring Harris and 29 per cent backing Trump.

Harris — who if elected would be the first female US president — has made explicit overtures to women voters in the final stretch of her campaign. She has emphasised her support for abortion access and reproductive rights and pinned the blame on the overturning of Roe vs Wade, which had enshrined the national right to an abortion, on Trump.

Iowa is one of more than a dozen Republican-controlled states that now has a ban on nearly all abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy, before many women realise they are pregnant.

National opinion polls have consistently shown a gender gap in the electorate, with women on the whole saying they are more likely to back Harris and men more inclined to vote for Trump.

But the Iowa poll nevertheless remains an outlier. The Financial Times poll tracker shows Harris enjoys a razor-thin lead of around one point over Trump in national polls.

Meanwhile, the two candidates remain locked in a statistical tie in the seven swing states — the “Blue Wall” states plus North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona — that analysts and campaigns have identified as likely to determine who wins the White House.