European gas prices surge on potential disruption from Russia

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European gas prices hit their highest levels in a year on Thursday after Austrian group OMV warned of a potential disruption to supplies from Russia.

Futures on the European benchmark, TTF, rose as much as 5 per cent to €46 euros per megawatt hour in early trade in Amsterdam before paring some gains.

The surge came after OMV warned late on Wednesday of “potential halt of gas supply” from Russia, after the Viennese energy and chemicals group was awarded €230mn from an arbitration ruling against Gazprom.

OMV had complained of “irregular” gas supplies from the Russian company into Germany, before supplies fully ended in September 2022.

OMV said it would “offset” the awarded amount against invoices on its contract with Gazprom with “immediate effect”. However it warned that its move might lead to “a deterioration of the contractual relationship”.

Europe’s gas market has been sensitive to supply disruption since Russia started cutting supplies to Europe in 2021 ahead of the invasion of Ukraine. In recent years, events that disrupt, or threaten to disrupt, global supplies of gas have led to sharp price moves in Europe.

Austria and Slovakia still receive Russian gas through Ukraine, owing to a transit agreement that allows the molecules to pass through the war-torn country, but it expires at the end of the year. The route is one of only two Russian routes that supply Europe with gas and accounts for about 5 per cent of the EU’s annual gas imports.

Analysts have warned that volumes passing through the Ukraine transit route could nearly halve if Gazprom halts supplies because of OMV’s decision, and the market would find out in a week’s time.

Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at consultancy ICIS, said Gazprom’s customers typically paid for supplies on the 20th of the month.

“OMV may withhold this next payment, which would be around €213mn, but this could trigger Gazprom in cutting that contract off immediately,” he warned.

The announcement comes just as colder weather sets in and annual gas demand for heating rises; the EU’s gas storages have had net withdrawals for 10 consecutive days, according to data from industry data provider Gas Infrastructure Europe.

OMV added that it would be able to fulfil contracts to deliver energy as it had diversified away from Russian sourced gas. Austria’s energy minister Leonore Gewessler also wrote on social media site X that OMV’s actions “do not pose an immediate threat to our security of supply”.

However, she warned: “It is clear that a sudden interruption in supply could cause tension on the gas markets.”

SPP, Slovakia’s largest energy provider, also said on Wednesday that it had signed a “short-term, pilot contract for the supply of natural gas” with Azerbaijan’s state oil and gas company Socar, in anticipation of the Ukraine transit deal expiring.

“SPP supports the continuation of gas transportation through the territory of Ukraine . . . because it is the most cost-effective solution for our customers,” it said. “However, due to the high risk of stopping gas supplies via the eastern branch, we are taking measures to guarantee safe gas supplies to our customers.”