Cost of UK Christmas dinner up 20% since pre-pandemic

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The cost of an average Christmas meal is a fifth higher than before the pandemic, spurred by a surge in the price of mince pies, parsnips and turkey.  

A basket of 10 items, including potatoes, carrots and pigs in blankets, averaged about £39.40 in December — a 1.7 per cent rise from last year.

However, the festive foods bill was 20 per cent higher than in 2019, according to data from the retail analytics company Assosia, which tracks the average pre-promotion prices for own-brand products sold by Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda, Morrisons, Aldi and Lidl.

The rise in prices was driven mainly by “much higher energy prices since the Russia-Ukraine war and the supply chain disruptions which emerged after the pandemic”, said Tomasz Wieladek, chief European economist at investment company T Rowe Price.

The cost of a 6kg frozen whole turkey was broadly unchanged from last year but 22 per cent more than in 2019, while premium mince pies were up by nearly 60 per cent.

Parsnip prices were also up by almost 30 per cent on pre-pandemic levels — although Brussels sprouts were down.

Wieladek noted that a rise in the UK minimum wage of more than 20 per cent, and wage growth of households in the lower half of the income distribution, had outpaced inflation.

“While the actual cost of a Christmas meal has risen significantly since 2019, the cost as a share of wages has roughly remained the same, at least for households in the lower half of the income distribution,” he said.

The rise in cost of the 10 items is slightly lower than the 24 per cent increase in the overall consumer price index since November 2019, as measured by the Office for National Statistics.

Overall food prices rose by 32 per cent over the same period, with some items registering particularly steep increases. A bottle of olive oil cost £9.20 in November — up from only £3.50 in the same month in 2019, according to official data. The price of plain biscuits, hot chocolate, frozen beef burgers, sugar and baked beans have jumped by about 60 per cent since before the pandemic, according to ONS.

ONS food inflation peaked at 19.2 per cent in March 2023 — the fastest pace in more than 45 years — before falling to 2 per cent in November 2024.

However, the rise in internationally traded food commodities poses a new risk to consumers. In November, the FAO food price index increased by an annual rate of 5.7 per cent, reaching the highest level since April 2023.

The increase was driven by higher prices for dairy products and vegetable oils, linked to excessive rainfall in south-east Asia.

“The cost of a Christmas meal will probably be higher next year and this time it is plausible that wages will not keep up as they have in the past,” said Wieladek.