Moldova warns of Russian campaign to derail its EU membership referendum

Good morning. Today, I report on rising concerns about Russian meddling in Moldova’s EU membership referendum, and reveal that the first EU-UK summit is being pencilled in for the first half of next year.

Have a great weekend.

Hybrid threats

Russia is attempting to derail Moldova’s EU membership bid through a hybrid pressure campaign targeting a referendum in three weeks on its accession ambitions, its pro-European government has warned.

Context: Moldova formally began EU accession talks in June. On October 20, the country will hold a referendum on whether to enshrine EU aspirations in the country’s constitution.

President Maia Sandu is leading the “yes” campaign, and a group of five Russia-affiliated opposition parties — including one run by fugitive pro-Kremlin oligarch Ilan Shor — are campaigning against; and calling for geopolitical alignment with Moscow instead.

That “no” campaign is benefiting from some €100mn that Moldova’s security services say is being funnelled into the country by Russia to support pro-Russian political groups and influence campaigns, and widespread disinformation on social media.

“Russia’s hybrid attacks aren’t a new chapter for Moldova; what’s unprecedented is their intensity, marked by a diverse arsenal of tactics and a massive influx of dirty money,” said Stanislav Secrieru, Moldova’s national security adviser.

Russia is “proliferating clone parties and candidates across the political spectrum, from pro-Russian to self-styled independents and fake pro-European actors, all designed to keep Moldova stuck in a grey zone”, Secrieru said. “With their ‘not now’ messaging, they know that Moldova’s window of opportunity won’t remain open forever, and their ultimate goal is to derail our EU accession.”

The US, UK and Canada in June warned that Moscow was trying to meddle in Moldovan politics and warned Russia would seek to incite mass protests if its campaign fails.

“These Russian proxies are already laying the groundwork to claim elections are fraudulent. Their objective is clear: sow doubt about the legitimacy of the electoral process to create chaos,” said Secrieru.

But Moldovan officials say there is one silver lining: Moscow’s increased intensity related to the referendum has come with a fall in Russian activity opposing Sandu’s re-election campaign. Citizens will vote in the presidential election on the same day as the referendum, and officials link Russia’s falling interest in that vote to Sandu’s now strong polling lead.

“Our conclusion is that they have realised there’s not a lot of point trying to campaign against her,” said a senior Moldovan official. “So that’s one positive.”

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Friends reunited

EU and UK officials are discussing holding their first joint summit since Britain left the bloc in the first half of next year, according to people briefed on the preparations, in a move to solidify the “reset” of relations between Brussels and London.

Context: The UK left the EU in 2020. Britain’s Labour Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has pledged to build better post-Brexit relations than his Conservative predecessors. The EU regularly holds summits with third countries such as India or China; or groups of countries, such as with the Gulf Cooperation Council next month.

The planned UK summit would take place during Poland’s rotating presidency of the EU, but would be held in Brussels, two of the people said.

The talks come as Starmer prepares to visit Brussels next week for bilateral talks with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen to “discuss the reset of EU-UK relations”.

Last month Starmer said he was “absolutely clear” about his desire to restore good relations with the EU eight years after the UK voted to leave the union. “That does not mean reversing Brexit or re-entering the single market or the customs union,” he added.

What to watch today

1. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts Italian President Sergio Mattarella in Berlin.

2. Pope Francis meets Belgian King Philippe and Prime Minister Alexander De Croo in Brussels.

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