FT Alphaville’s fave Trump trade is puking

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Forget about glitchy polls, betting odds, and manipulation-prone prediction markets, our favourite proxy for Donald Trump’s election chances is $DJT.

That’s the stock market ticker of the hilariously-named Trump Media and Technology Group, whose only real “asset” is Truth Social, a social media company whose USP of spittle-flecked bigotry has been skilfully undercut by Elon Musk’s overhaul of Twitter.

Having fallen for weeks after Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket, DJT surged this autumn as expectations grew that Trump will win.

Shares peaked at $52 on Tuesday, giving the company a market cap of just over $10bn. That meant it was notionally more valuable than Twitter/X, which a Fidelity fund valued at $9.4bn in its latest regulatory filing of its holdings.

However, yesterday DJT abruptly plummeted 22.3 per cent, and in pre-market trading it’s now down another 6.3 per cent today, at $37.51. (H/T FTAV allfather Paul Murphy for the heads-up).

Are we saying that the puke is because Trump’s election chances have suddenly faded? No. Obviously not. It’s silly to over-interpret any market movements, and certainly so when it comes to something as sketchy as DJT.

But this is in reality an entirely vibes-based stock, because Truth Social is a complete joke. The company’s revenues in the six months through June 30, 2024 were $1.6mn, resulting in a net loss of $344mn for the period, according to its latest filing. Even after the recent tumble, it still has a market cap of $7.8bn.

So it’s not unfair to attribute any ebb and flow purely to sentiment towards Trump. And to paraphrase an aphorism from his buddy Musk, the most amusing interpretation is the best one.

We should also note that FT Alphaville’s second-favourite Trump trade — New York Times Company stock — also dipped yesterday and is down in pre-market trading.