Control of House hangs in balance as vote count continues in US

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Donald Trump’s ability to push through his legislative agenda hangs in the balance as votes continue to be counted in more than two dozen congressional races that will determine which party controls the House of Representatives.

While Trump secured a stunning victory in this week’s presidential election, and Republicans will have a majority in the US Senate, a long list of House races have yet to be called, leaving it unclear whether Republicans will hold on to the lower chamber.

If Democrats are able to reclaim control of the House, they could act as a bulwark against the Trump White House and a Republican-held Senate.

But given the scale of Republican wins on Tuesday night many non-partisan analysts expect the lower chamber will probably remain under GOP control. Trump improved his margins in 48 out of 50 states and is on course to be the first Republican presidential candidate to win the national popular vote in two decades.

Experts at the Cook Political Report wrote in a memo on Wednesday that the “most likely outcome is a GOP trifecta, including a continued narrow Republican House majority”.

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson — a close Trump ally who is expected to keep the top job in the House should Republicans hold on to the chamber — has said the GOP is “poised to have unified government in the White House, Senate and House”.

In an interview with Fox News on Wednesday, Johnson said Republicans would be “ready to play ball on day one”.

“President Trump wants to be aggressive. He wants to go big, and we’re excited about that,” he said. “We’re going to get to play offence, because I’m absolutely convinced we’re going to have the White House, the Senate and the House. I think we will deliver that majority.”

Hakeem Jeffries, the House Democratic leader who would probably be Speaker if Democrats were able to reclaim control of the chamber, has struck a more cautious note.

“It has yet to be decided who will control the House of Representatives in the 119th Congress,” Jeffries said on Thursday. “We must count every vote and wait until the results in Oregon, Arizona and California are clear.”

Many close congressional races have been slow to be decided because states will continue to count mail-in ballots so long as they are postmarked by election day. California has historically been slow to count votes — and nearly a dozen races in the state have yet to be called.

The delays are not without precedent. Two years ago, after the 2022 midterms, it took more than a week for the Associated Press to call that Republicans had retaken control of the House.

While Republicans are certain to retake control of the Senate after flipping three seats in West Virginia, Ohio and Montana, the margin of their majority also remains in the balance, with results still being tabulated in Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada.