Honda-Nissan merger talks mark Japan Inc’s new consolidate-to-survive mood

Merger talks between Honda and Nissan and the potential creation of the world’s third-biggest carmaker represent a critical admission for the whole of corporate Japan: the best time to consolidate was yesterday, the second best time is today.

That was the view of one senior government official on Wednesday, in a reflection of deepening concerns over the survival of Japan’s fragmented automotive industry and the collapse of Nissan’s market value.

The talks to close ranks and combine are taking place in a hostile environment. Chinese competitors are relentless, the tariff and global trade regime under Donald Trump is unpredictable, and Japan’s economy is swapping years of ultra-loose monetary policy for rising interest rates.

The response of the nation’s second and third-biggest carmakers will reverberate throughout the economy, say analysts. A decision to consolidate could force hundreds of other Japanese companies in other sectors to look around them and decide that dealmaking may be the only route to survival.

Japan’s automotive industry is coming under assault from China’s affordable, slick electric vehicles even as it faces the rising threat of tariffs on exports to the US where brutal discounting has eroded profitability for all but the biggest producers.

Linked to Nissan and Honda are a vast web of suppliers and industrial companies, many making the same products — from ball bearings and lifts to semiconductors — while facing ever stiffer competition from China.

As well as growing global competition, Japan Inc is being pushed towards mergers by investor-friendly corporate governance reforms, rising shareholder activism, a shrinking domestic market and tightening labour availability, say the nation’s top executives.

Takeshi Niinami, chair of the Japanese Association of Corporate Executives, said that the mindset towards consolidation in Japan was shifting as the country moved to a new era of inflation following three decades of stagflation.

“Consolidation is burgeoning in this country and I think we should just see more,” said Niinami, who is also chief executive of Suntory Holdings, the beverage company. “Now is the right time.”

Nissan serves as an example of how Japanese brands have fallen down the global pecking order. In 2013, the company was the sixth largest automaker in the world, selling 4.9mn cars. This year, it only expects to sell 3mn and has suffered in the US market from a lack of hybrid offerings, which have surged in popularity and sheltered Toyota’s financials.

Honda has also shrunk over that time, going from 4.3mn automobiles a decade ago to an expected 3.8mn this year.

By contrast, Chinese rivals such as BYD have grown into some of the world’s largest selling brands on the back of early investment in electric vehicle technology and big economies of scale.

The industry still faces more vast investment outlays for battery technology and software — areas where China’s carmakers, which have benefited from years of Beijing support towards technical research and securing global supply chains for key resources, have an edge over the traditional engine-based expertise of their Japanese rivals.

Jeff Hutchins, head of Japan equities at Jefferies, said Japan was in the early stages of what was likely to be a huge, multiyear increase in corporate activity and improvements in capital efficiency. This would be led by M&A activity and driven by the increasing pressures on traditional automakers.

“The US and Germany have shown the playbook for autos consolidation, now it is Japan’s turn to follow,” he said.

Nissan and Honda have been exploring a partnership since March last year, taking a further step of announcing joint collaboration on EVs and software over the summer. Honda also agreed last year to partner with Sony to pool resources in vehicle engineering and software to create cars together.

A person close to Nissan said the company had been in an alliance with Renault for about 20 years without the desired effects, and antitrust regulations limited the depth of collaboration and information, creating the need to explore a merger.

Masatoshi Kikuchi, pan-Asian chief equity strategist at Mizuho, said that Japanese auto companies faced a trio of problems as they lost market share to Chinese rivals in that country and south-east Asia, while facing a shrinking domestic market and additional tariffs from Trump.

“Japanese car companies, especially Nissan and Honda, decided to discuss merging as they need to tackle several headwinds at once,” he said.

Kikuchi cast doubt on whether Nissan and Honda merging would cause a ripple effect throughout Japan, citing management teams’ strong desire to remain independent — until they come under attack from activist investors.

Nissan itself has welcomed two such investors, Effissimo Capital Management and Oasis Management, to its register.

Executives at Nissan believe the Chinese market is rapidly being ceded to local players, despite it formerly being a stronghold. Production cuts in the country will play only a small role in helping Nissan to achieve 9,000 job cuts, as outlined in a restructuring plan in November, because of the joint venture structures with local partners that Beijing mandates.

For the Japanese carmaker, the biggest issue is the US market, in which only cash-rich companies such as Toyota and Hyundai can withstand the price-discounting war, and Nissan’s footprint has fallen behind Stellantis, General Motors and Ford.

Tariffs of up to 25 per cent from Trump on vehicle exports from Mexico threaten to hit Honda and Nissan. That makes bulking up domestic production in the US imperative, analysts say.

At the same time, Japanese automakers weak in the EV sector could struggle when some US states led by California introduce stricter emissions legislation from 2026, where hybrids’ capabilities are not enough.

Kota Yuzawa, analyst at Goldman Sachs, said two Japanese auto industry groups, led by Toyota with about 15mn in sales and another spearheaded by Nissan and Honda with 10mn sales, would have sufficient economies of scale, assuming US decoupling from China continues.

“Even so, Japanese automakers will need to keep a huge share of global hybrid sales to maintain Japan’s engine plants,” he warned, in an interview before the merger news emerged.

Nissan and Honda have significant overlap, with production concentrated in the US and Japan. That creates big potential for the two companies to reduce fixed costs.

But Japan’s demographic situation — with a shrinking workforce and consequently tight labour market — has created a new environment for domestic consolidation that would not have existed in the past, said Nicholas Smith, Japan strategist at CLSA Securities.

Japanese labour laws have traditionally made it hard to sack employees, meaning that one of the main attractions of mergers in other countries — the cost-cutting opportunities — has not been a driving force in Japan.

“You can do consolidation now because there isn’t the labour excess any more,” said Smith.

Additional reporting by Edward White in Shanghai