JD Vance has most to gain in vice-presidential debate

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With just over a month until polling day, vice-presidential candidates JD Vance and Tim Walz will take the stage in New York City on Tuesday night at a pivotal moment for the US presidential election.

It will be the first, and probably only, time that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris’s running mates debate, and the primetime event offers Vance in particular an opportunity to improve his relatively tepid approval ratings.

An Associated Press poll last week showed more than half — 57 per cent — of registered voters had an unfavourable view of Vance, the Republican senator from Ohio, compared with just under a third — 32 per cent — who disliked Walz, the Democratic governor of Minnesota.

Tuesday’s showdown, hosted by CBS News, will also probably be the last televised debate of the 2024 presidential election cycle. While Harris has accepted an invitation from CNN for another presidential debate in late October, Trump has said he has no intention of taking the stage again.

The Financial Times poll tracker shows that while Harris enjoys a 3.4 percentage point lead over Trump in national polls, the two candidates remain in a virtual tie in all seven swing states that are likely to decide who wins the White House.

The first presidential debate between Harris and Trump last month on ABC News was viewed by more than 60mn people, according to Nielsen estimates, and was widely seen as a “win” for Harris, who repeatedly put Trump on the defensive.

Yet the showdown has failed to have a significant impact on either candidate’s polling numbers, and few political operatives — including insiders from both campaigns — believe Tuesday’s debate will move the needle.

Republican strategist Doug Heye said that with most undecided voters focused on the fight between Harris and Trump, few of them were likely to change their vote based on the performances of their running mates, “barring something cataclysmic”.

Still, the stakes remain high for Vance and Walz, as the debate offers both men arguably their biggest platform to pitch themselves — and more importantly their bosses — to the American electorate.

The two running mates “still want to do their job to win the debate”, Heye said, adding: “If you’re Walz, it’s to remind voters of what they didn’t like about Donald Trump. If you’re Vance, it’s what they don’t like about the Biden-Harris administration.”

Vance, 40, had been seen as a rising star in the Republican party since he was elected to the US Senate in 2022. But his time on the campaign trail has been controversial, with the one-time Trump critic-turned-Maga loyalist seeing his approval ratings fall, particularly among women.

Even so, allies and critics say Vance — a Yale Law School graduate, Marine veteran and former venture capitalist — is likely to deliver a strong performance on Tuesday night. The Ohio senator has reportedly been preparing for the debate with help from top Trump campaign advisers; his wife, former US Supreme Court clerk Usha Vance; and Minnesota congressman Tom Emmer, who has played the role of Walz in mock debates.

“He certainly isn’t going to perform the way Trump did,” said Matt Bennett, co-founder of centrist Democratic think-tank Third Way, referring to the Republican candidate’s widely panned performance against Harris.

Walz, a 60-year-old former teacher and high school football coach who served several terms in Congress before running for governor of Minnesota, is generally seen as a less enthusiastic debater. He has also dedicated significant time to preparing for the event, with US transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg — arguably one of the Democratic party’s most effective communicators — playing the part of Vance.

According to rules announced by CBS News on Friday, the format of the vice-presidential debate will largely mirror the presidential debate, taking place in a studio for 90 minutes with no audience and the two moderators the only ones asking questions.

No props or notes will be allowed on stage, and no topics or questions will be shared in advance. In one notable change from the presidential debate format, microphones are expected to remain on throughout the entire debate, rather than muted when it is not a candidate’s designated turn to speak.