A year of war in the Middle East

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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.

The Middle East was set to change from the moment Hamas militants broke through the security barrier around Gaza on October 7, crossed into Israel and killed more Jews than on any day since the Holocaust. A nation’s worst nightmare was realised in the most brutal fashion. Its enemy rampaged through homes, murdering and maiming. About 1,200 people were slain; another 250 dragged back to Gaza.

Israel received wide sympathy as it reeled from its darkest day. Allies supported its right to hold those responsible to account as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war and launched a thunderous offensive against Hamas in Gaza. But there were also words of caution. President Joe Biden warned the traumatised nation to avoid Washington’s mistakes after the 9/11 attacks, when it invaded Afghanistan and Iraq. As the death toll soared in Gaza, US defence secretary Lloyd Austin cautioned that Israel risked replacing “a tactical victory with a strategic defeat” if it did not do more to protect civilians.

These friendly words of advice at a perilous moment for Israel and the region appear to have fallen on deaf ears. Traditional red lines between age-old foes have been repeatedly crossed, historical precedents rendered useless. A year of catastrophic death and destruction has followed, with tragedy layered upon tragedy.

On Monday, Israelis will mark the grim anniversary of October 7 with their country at war not just in Gaza, but on multiple fronts. Hamas is severely depleted. But it has not disappeared. Israel’s offensive has wrought unimaginable suffering, killing more than 41,000 people, mostly women and children, according to Palestinian health officials. Most Gazans have been driven from their homes as Israeli bombs have reduced swaths of the enclave to rubble. Disease and hunger stalk the population as Israel lays siege to the strip.

Dozens of Israeli hostages are still trapped in a hellish existence, their agonised families not knowing their fate. Repeated efforts to broker a ceasefire and hostage deal have failed. Israel still has no viable postwar plan as Netanyahu vows “total victory”.

The occupied West Bank, meanwhile, has endured one of its bloodiest years in decades under a barrage of Israeli military raids. Israel has dramatically escalated its offensive against Hizbollah, launching a ground assault into southern Lebanon, while wreaking havoc across the country with waves of air strikes. More than a 1,000 Lebanese have been killed and 1mn displaced.

Hizbollah erred in beginning to fire rockets into the Jewish state from October 8, ostensibly in solidarity with Hamas. Its attacks forced 60,000 Israelis from their homes and fed Israeli fears that it faced an existential threat from Iran and groups it arms and backs. There was, however, no evidence that Tehran — long a malign force in the region — was involved in Hamas’s attack. Today, Israel’s escalation against Hizbollah, including assassinating its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and Iran’s retaliatory missile barrage at Israel, have pushed the region to the brink of a long-feared all-out war.

The Biden administration has repeatedly called for de-escalation, the crisis underling its position as the only power with the diplomatic heft to douse the flames. But it has also exposed its impotence in reining in Netanyahu and his far-right allies. He remains defiant, but his country looks increasingly isolated, its government facing accusations of committing genocide in Gaza.

Twelve months of conflict have left Israel no more secure, its people still traumatised, and the region around it in pain and in flames. Israel’s allies have long understood that the path to lasting security for the Jewish state involves a peaceful settlement with the Palestinians, rather than a forever war. Sadly, Israel, under Netanyahu, has lost faith in the promise of coexistence and in the counsel of its friends.