Hungary’s opposition overtakes Viktor Orbán’s party for first time in decades

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.

The party of Hungarian premier Viktor Orbán has been overtaken by an upstart rival for the first time in nearly two decades, opinion polls show.

Founded this year by Péter Magyar, the centre-right Tisza party topped voters’ preferences in two major opinion polls published this week — a sign of the public’s eroding trust in the EU’s longest-serving prime minister and Brussels antagonist, ahead of parliamentary elections due in spring 2026.

Orbán has long been a thorn in the side of his western partners in the EU and Nato, where he is increasingly considered a liability due to his closeness with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and his self-declared goal of turning Hungary into an ‘illiberal’ state.

But his strategy of expanding his control over the economy, courts and media while keeping his voter base happy and the opposition fragmented has been challenged by Magyar, a former ally turned foe, whose party came second in elections for the European parliament in June.

A survey by pollster Publicus showed on Thursday that Tisza was marginally ahead of the ruling Fidesz party, both among decided voters and the entire electorate. A second poll by 21 Research Centre, a Hungarian think-tank, placed them neck and neck among decided voters, at 40 and 42 per cent, respectively, which is within the error margin.

Election expert Róbert László of the Budapest think-tank Political Capital said Tisza’s strong upward trend so soon after the party was founded was undeniable. “Péter Magyar was unknown before February,” László said. “He started his political movement in April, got 30 per cent at the June European elections, and by now has a voter to match every Fidesz voter. That is a remarkable trend.”

László warned that Tisza has yet to build the political network to turn this support into votes effectively in 2026. But he noted that no single political force has come close to Fidesz since 2006, when Orbán overtook the Socialists and began to dominate Hungarian politics.

Magyar has pledged to repair ties with allies, fix the rule of law to release €20bn of withheld EU funds and join EU prosecution. He enjoys the backing of mainstream political leaders in Brussels, including European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and Manfred Weber, leader of the centre-right European People’s party, the largest EU parliamentary group Tisza is now a member of.

Orbán and Magyar traded punches at a national holiday on Wednesday commemorating the 1956 anti-Soviet uprising, which was crushed by Moscow.

A former Fidesz member himself, Magyar lambasted the government for catering to Russia, a dramatic contrast to the end of Communism, when Orbán was an anti-Soviet youth leader.

“The man who leads our country today demanded Russian troops to leave the country in 1989, but he has come to trample upon the legacy of 1956 with every move he makes,” Magyar said. “Mr Prime Minister, why won’t you say ‘Russians go home’ any more?”

The premier spoke in front of a tightly controlled audience of supporters in a fenced-off Budapest park, telling them Magyar was a “lapdog” of the EU, which wanted to subjugate Hungary.

“Brussels has announced it would get rid of Hungary’s patriotic government,” Orbán said. “They want to put a Brusselite puppet regime over the country . . . they have their party of choice, and their candidate, a true rubber-stamp guy.”

Magyar’s supporters, who gathered on a public square outside the park where Orbán spoke, said they sensed the wind of change.

“I used to think there was no chance to beat this Muscovite Orbán,” said Judit, a 52 year-old teacher from Budapest. “Now I feel like his days are numbered.”