Japan’s PM Shigeru Ishiba vows to stay on after election debacle

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Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has vowed to stay on as the nation’s leader after his Liberal Democratic party was trounced in a general election, leaving it unable to govern alone and threatening to paralyse Japanese politics.

The LDP’s performance in Sunday’s poll was the ruling party’s worst in 15 years, far surpassing even the most pessimistic forecasts. While the LDP remains the largest party, even in combination with its junior coalition partner, the Komeito party, the bloc ended 18 seats short of the 233-seat threshold needed to control parliament.

Ishiba said he did not plan to resign, telling reporters on Monday that Japan’s economic and security conditions meant that national politics should not be allowed to stagnate. 

“In light of the severe criticism we have received from the public, we will endeavour to ensure that the national government remains stable,” he said. “We will fulfil our duties to protect the lives of the people and the country by responding to tough issues in a solemn and appropriate way.”

The yen sold off sharply, weakening about 1 per cent against the US dollar to a three-month low. The Nikkei 225 Average rose 1.82 per cent on the weaker yen and expectations of hefty government spending ahead of what is now set to be an even harder-fought upper house election next year.

The poll also delivered a significant boost to the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan. Under Japan’s constitution, parties now have a 30-day window to form a grouping capable of governing, either through formal coalition agreements or vote-by-vote arrangements, and both the LDP and CDPJ are expected to initiate complex negotiations with smaller potential partners.

Political analysts said coalition talks were likely to focus on the Japan Innovation party, led by Nobuyuki Baba and the Democratic Party for the People, led by Yuichiro Tamaki. The parties won 38 and 28 seats respectively, but indicated ahead of Sunday’s result that they were not interested in coalition talks. 

Despite speculation that the LDP must court at least one of the parties in order to move forward, Ishiba said that he did not envisage a new coalition, but would instead begin consulting other parties on policy and “humbly adopting” alternative policies for the sake of the country.

His comments were taken by some analysts as a signal that the LDP may attempt to govern through ad hoc voting deals, rather than by formally enlarging the coalition.

Sunday’s snap general election, which Ishiba called just days after being elevated to the premiership, was a gamble aimed at strengthening his mandate while catching the opposition off-guard.

But it backfired, as voters punished the LDP for a political funding scandal that found MPs had enriched themselves as the nation was enduring acute rises in the cost of living. Turnout was historically low, at just 53.8 per cent.

“The turnout was low, and that tells you that this was not the same as 2009, when the opposition outright defeated the LDP and ushered in a completely new government. That was voters actively demanding something new,” said Tobias Harris, the founder of political risk advisory Japan Foresight.

“This was a rare example of the Japanese electorate using a lower house election to express their dislike for the LDP.”

The election was also highly damaging to Komeito, which is linked to the Soka Gakkai Buddhist movement. The party was already struggling to attract a new generation of supporters, and its leader, Keiichi Ishii, who was only appointed last month, lost his seat.

Shinjiro Koizumi, the young and charismatic LDP politician who stood against Ishiba for the party leadership and was appointed head of the LDP’s election committee, resigned on Monday, taking responsibility for Sunday’s drubbing.