Birth rate drops to record low in England and Wales

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The birth rate in England and Wales fell to the lowest level since records began nearly 90 years ago, according to official data that highlights Britain’s demographic challenges.

The total fertility rate dropped to 1.44 children per woman, its lowest value since records began in 1938, the Office for National Statistics said on Monday.

The current rate is well below the 2.1 children per woman that is considered necessary to maintain a stable population in developed countries without migration. In England and Wales, it has been declining steadily since 2010.

Falling birth numbers could lead to a shrinking working age in the decades ahead, adding pressure on the public finances and economic growth, according to analysts.

Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London, said that in the short term lower births reduce spending pressure on schools, childcare and child benefits. But “over the longer term, it will, of course, mean fewer workers to support a growing elderly population”, he added. 

“Relatively high rates of immigration may save us from going the way of Japan or South Korea, but these trends should still worry anyone thinking about what Britain will look like in 2050,” he said.  

The figures were released ahead of the Budget on Wednesday, in which UK chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to raise UK taxation to fill a £40bn funding gap.

Last month, the Office for Budget Responsibility, the UK fiscal watchdog, mentioned an ageing population as one of the key factors that could push public debt to 274 per cent of GDP over the next 50 years — nearly three times the level today.

The ONS noted there were various factors behind the fall in births, including the introduction of the contraceptive pill in the 1960s, the rise of women in employment and education, and the cost of childcare and housing.

Research from UCL also found that not feeling ready and not finding the right partner is preventing millennials (people born between 1981 and 1996) who want children from trying to have them.

“While those without children may be navigating the complexities of finding a partner and establishing their careers before parenthood, parents are grappling with the realities of balancing existing family and financial responsibilities with the prospect of having more children,” said Alina Pelikh, UCL research fellow and author of the report.

The ONS said that over the past decade, the declining fertility rate was steepest among those aged under 30. Mothers who gave birth to a child in 2023 were on average almost a year older than their 2013 counterparts, it noted.

Most advanced and developing countries face similar pressures. In the EU, birth numbers fell to a record low in 2023, with fertility rates as low as 1.2 children per woman in Italy and Spain.

All advanced economies except Israel have birth rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, according to the OECD. Meanwhile, more than half of all countries globally have an average number of births per woman below 2.1, according to the UN.

Experts warn that raising labour force participation is key to mitigating the impact of lower fertility rates.

Ann Berrington, professor of demography at the Centre for Population Change at the University of Southampton, said the government should focus on expanding the workforce, tackling economic inactivity and the mental health crisis.

“We need to improve the training of young adults to get them into the labour market . . . and at the older end of the life course, we might want to concentrate on policies for improving health and well being,” she said.

Geeta Nargund, senior NHS consultant and medical director of abc IVF, said the figures were “a wake-up call” to addressing “barriers to parenthood”.

She called on ministers to “end the NHS postcode lottery for IVF” access, reduce waiting lists for fertility diagnosis and treatment and invest in “family-friendly policies”.