Flexibility over electricity use key to UK’s 2030 green power target, says adviser

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UK businesses and households will need to be far more flexible about when they use electricity for the country to decarbonise the power system by 2030, according to official advice set to be published on Tuesday. 

Some of Britain’s ageing nuclear power stations will also need to be kept open longer than planned, under the modelling of one of the Labour government’s flagship climate targets.

The advice from the National Energy System Operator (NESO) says businesses and households need to play a far greater role than currently in balancing the electricity system, according to people familiar with the matter.

This could involve factories ramping up output during windy periods when wind farms were at higher capacity, or households unplugging electric cars when renewables output is low.

NESO is already trying to encourage this sort of consumer behaviour by paying households to defer usage when needed. The state-owned company said last month it would offer the payment scheme all year-round.

Electricity supply and demand needs to be balanced second-by-second, a more complicated task when more supply is coming from intermittent renewables.

NESO’s modelling of the 2030 target includes a scenario where “demand-flexibility” rises from just under 3GW currently to about 11-12GW, according to the people familiar with the matter.

The report says meeting the target will also need French state utility EDF to extend the life of some of its ageing UK nuclear power sites to meet demand alongside the Hinkley Point C nuclear plant, due to open in 2030.

Torness and Heysham 2 are considered in industry the most likely to be able to make it to 2030 and slightly beyond, with a decision by EDF due at the end of this year. The stations are currently due to close in March 2028. 

The NESO advice, due to be published on Tuesday, marks the most concrete appraisal of whether and how the government will be able to meet its manifesto pledge of a clean power system by 2030.

Ed Miliband, energy secretary, argued that meeting the pledge would help bring energy bills down by moving the UK away from fossil fuels in favour of “homegrown clean energy”.

Shortly after taking office in July, he asked NESO for its advice on how to reach the 2030 target, which is five years’ faster than the 2035 clean power target promised by the former Conservative government.

The earlier target has been considered unworkable by many in industry given the huge amount of new wind turbines, solar farms, cables and pylons required within a short space of time.

The NESO report finds that target is possible but challenging to meet, according to the people familiar with matter. NESO said it would publish its advice on Tuesday.

The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

NESO also forecast that less offshore wind would need to be built than Labour set out in its manifesto ahead of the July 4 UK general election.

The report estimates that about 43-50GW of offshore wind capacity will be needed by 2030, up from about 15GW now but less than the 55GW of conventional, fixed bottom offshore wind Labour envisaged.

The Office for Budget Responsibility forecast on Wednesday that environmental levies on electricity bills would rise by more than a fifth by 2030, to help pay for policies including more offshore wind turbines and keeping gas-fired turbines on standby to step in when needed.