Musk’s X to undershoot revenue goals from political advertising

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Elon Musk’s X is on track to fall well short of its goal of bringing in $100mn in revenue from political advertising in 2024, raising just $15mn in the year to date, largely from an increasing reliance on Republicans and the Trump campaign. 

Last year, X chief executive Linda Yaccarino told industry figures she was aiming to make $100mn annually in political ad revenues in an election year, according to several people familiar with the projections. The company is trying to offset revenue losses caused by big brands pulling spending from the platform.

However, data from X’s political ads transparency library analysed by the Financial Times show that the company has brought in less than a fifth of its target as of October 23, with under two weeks to go until the November 5 vote. 

The data also show that X has mainly been reliant on Republican campaigning. An FT analysis of the top 100 advertisers found 42 Republican candidates or political action committees — accounting for just over half of the spending — and only 13 Democrats. 

The biggest spender was the campaign account for Donald Trump, for whom X’s billionaire owner has declared his support this election, joining him on the campaign trail.

The @TeamTrump account spent $948,000 for 162 adverts on the platform, garnering 410mn views. Many of the ads hawk campaign merchandise like “Maga” hats, while others focus on fundraising or attacking Kamala Harris.

Meanwhile, Musk’s own pro-Trump group, America Pac, to which he has donated at least $75mn, has spent $225,000 on 73 ads, according to the disclosures. Many of the group’s ads contain large images of Musk, promoting his rallies in Pennsylvania supporting the campaign.

Other Republicans in the top ten ad spenders included Trump’s daughter-in-law and Republican National Committee co-chair Lara Trump, Kentucky senator Rand Paul, and Texas senator Ted Cruz, who each spent between $500,000 and $600,000.

While the Harris campaign have not run ads on X, a few Democrats are using the platform to get out the vote: Texas Senate candidate Colin Allred, Florida Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer have each spent over $300,000 on the platform.

The Harris campaign has instead focused its digital spending on larger platforms like Google and Meta, where it has spent over $280mn this year. The vast amount of political spending on those platforms — already more than $1.5bn — dwarfs the political advertising revenue on X.

“A lot of the Democratic political groups developed a deep mistrust for Twitter once it was purchased by Elon Musk,” said Jenna Golden, who runs a sales consultancy and previously was head of political sales at X.

“Whereas many of the Republican political groups felt that Elon Musk’s ownership made them more willing to test advertising again as he was pushing in the direction of radical free speech.”

The paltry revenues mark another blow to Yaccarino’s attempts to revive X’s financial health as relations between Musk and the advertisers that made up the majority of its revenues prior to the acquisition remain icy.

Big brands including Disney, IBM and Apple froze spending on X last year over concerns about Musk’s hands-off approach to moderation, prompting the billionaire to tell them to “go fuck” themselves. 

According to estimates from market intelligence firm Sensor Tower, shared with the FT, total US ad spend among the top 100 advertisers on X in the first half of 2024, including both brands and political advertisers, was down 68 per cent compared with the first half of 2022 before Musk acquired the platform. 

Some brand advertisers are also likely to pull back spending around the election across platforms, according to experts, to avoid the risk of having their ads placed next to contentious content.

Last year, Musk reversed a ban on political advertising instituted by former chief executive Jack Dorsey.

The company upped its investment in the political advertising space, according to people familiar with the matter, hiring a 10-strong team who held more than 400 meetings and calls with digital marketers, strategists, campaigns and political action groups, and hosting events in Washington DC. 

The team is headed by Sten McGuire, who has worked in political sales for Hulu and Walt Disney. Yaccarino’s son Matthew Madrazo manages Republican relationships, while media advertising veteran Jonathan Phelps handles Democratic groups.

Sceptics believed the team lacks experience and that X’s targets were too high.

“The target was wildly unrealistic from the start and was not based on a reasonable baseline or past political ad spending on Twitter,” said Golden.