US clean energy industry’s future hangs in balance on election day

At the mouth of New York’s Hudson River, Norwegian oil and gas producer Equinor is building the largest US port for offshore wind, and a potential monument to America’s energy future — or its past.

As Americans brace for one of the closest presidential elections in the nation’s history, investors and executives alike have been parsing campaign statements for which industries stand to gain or lose the most in the next administration. But as election day nears, one is clearly emerging as the most exposed to the outcome: renewable energy.

“A Harris-Walz win next Tuesday is good news for the offshore wind industry. A Trump-Vance win next Tuesday is terrible,” Sean McGarvey, president of the North America’s Building Trades Unions, which works on offshore wind projects, said at a conference this week. His predictions that Kamala Harris would win the election were met with unanimous applause.

Donald Trump has vowed to stop offshore wind projects on “day one” if re-elected. He has also pledged to “terminate” the Inflation Reduction Act, President Joe Biden’s landmark climate law that included lucrative tax credits to drive down the cost of renewable energy and turbocharge the pace of decarbonisation.

Nearly $450bn in private investment has flowed into the US energy sector since the IRA’s passage, according to the Clean Investment Monitor. Consultancy BloombergNEF estimates a repeal of the IRA will result in a 17 per cent drop in new renewable capacity additions from 2025 to 2035, with offshore wind the hardest hit, falling 35 per cent.

A recent Goldman Sachs analysis of market outcomes concluded renewables could be the biggest winner under Harris, and tied for biggest loser under Trump, along with tariff-sensitive sectors.

Unlike solar and onshore wind, offshore wind requires federal permits and is most vulnerable to changes in office. The Biden administration turbocharged offshore wind deployment, setting an ambitious target to deploy 30GW by 2030 and approving 16GW of commercial-scale projects, up from zero at the start of his presidency.

Molly Morris, Equinor’s US president of offshore wind, cited the “certainty of the commitment” for renewable energy as the most important factor to advance offshore wind.

Equinor broke ground in June on its 73-acre project, known as the South Brooklyn Marine Terminal. It will serve as an assembly site for its offshore wind project, Empire Wind 1, which is eligible for IRA tax credits, and accommodate future offshore wind projects in the region.

Whether Trump or Harris wins next week’s election will have ramifications across corporate America. Bloomberg Intelligence predicts a Trump presidency could reduce capital requirements for US banks, undermine subsidies in the Affordable Care Act, and lower the liability shield for Big Tech companies. A Harris presidency would resemble policies set by the Biden administration, increasing scrutiny of banks, Big Tech, and pharmaceutical companies, and continuing the implementation of the IRA and rules to curb emissions.

“I’ve been unapologetic about who we’re supporting,” said Sheldon Kimber, chief executive of renewables developer Intersect Power, who introduced Harris at a fundraiser earlier this year. The company has started construction on nearly all of its projects to safeguard itself from potential changes to tax credit rules.

A full repeal of the IRA would face steep challenges. While the IRA passed with no Republican support in Congress, GOP areas of the country have been the main beneficiaries, with more than three-quarters of all manufacturing projects announced in the first year of the law’s passage headed to the party’s districts, according to an FT analysis.

In August, 18 congressional Republicans wrote a letter to Speaker Mike Johnson urging the party leader to “prioritise business and market certainty” in consideration of efforts to repeal or reform the IRA.

“We see not only steel in the water and people working, but people working in red states and blue states,” said Doreen Harris, president of the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority. “It would be difficult to imagine throwing that all away.”

While Trump rolled back restrictions on fossil fuel production and limits to emissions from power plants and cars, he also renewed tax credits for solar and wind projects and electric vehicles. US renewables deployment continued to grow under his presidency.

Wind capacity grew 45 per cent between 2016 and 2020, while solar capacity more than doubled, according to the Energy Information Administration. In his debate with Harris, Trump said he is a “big fan” of solar.

Analysts say potential Trump policies that pose a high risk to the US transition are tariffs on Chinese goods and changes to the IRA’s tax credit for EVs, which have become a culture war issue since his presidency. China is the dominant producer of clean energy technologies and refines the majority of the mineral inputs.

The Biden administration has set a target to reduce emissions by 50 per cent to 52 per cent from 2005 levels. A May forecast from Wood Mackenzie anticipates a slower energy transition under Trump, resulting in 683mn tonnes of additional carbon emissions in the energy sector and a $322bn reduction in anticipated clean energy investment by 2030.

“[Companies] are going to go to Europe. They’re going to go to other places. They’re not going to come here . . . It’s anti-business,” said Elizabeth Yeampierre, executive director of Uprose, a Brooklyn community organisation that has lent its support to the Equinor project. Next to her office is a barbershop with a flag that reads: Trump 2024 Take America Back.