Europe scrambles to adjust to the fall of Assad’s brutal regime in Syria

Good morning. When they fall, they fall fast. After almost 14 years of horrendous civil war, it took rebel groups just 12 days to depose Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad, the last of the Arab Spring dictators to be toppled. European diplomats are scrambling to work out how to respond, as I report below.

Also, Brussels’ new security and digital tsar tells Laura and our technology correspondent how the EU will respond to sabotage of undersea cables.

New dawn

European capitals are rapidly recalibrating their Middle East approach after rebels led by a former Isis fighter toppled Syria’s Assad regime, in a stunning development that leaves the Middle East in unprecedented uncertainty.

Context: Assad and his father Hafez al-Assad ruled Syria for 53 years. A brutal despot, he used chemical weapons, barrel bombs, starvation tactics, torture and murder against his own citizens during a civil war that displaced more than 12mn people — half the population — and killed or “disappeared” hundreds of thousands.

Such was the speed of the rebels’ capture of Damascus on Sunday and Assad’s flight to Russia that many senior European diplomats said yesterday they were still waiting to receive detailed intelligence briefings as they weighed up questions over aid, diplomatic engagement and security implications.

Kaja Kallas, the EU’s chief diplomat, said yesterday she was “in close contact with ministers from the region”.

“The process of rebuilding Syria will be long and complicated and all parties must be ready to engage constructively,” she said, adding: “The end of Assad’s dictatorship is a positive and long-awaited development.”

Assad’s removal redraws the Middle East by removing a key Iranian and Russian ally at the heart of the region.

Undeniably a major blow to Tehran and Moscow — which has critical naval and air bases in the country — EU officials said that the long-term outcome would depend on how Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of the triumphant Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Islamist movement that spearheaded the assault, would seek to consolidate power, and whether he could bring a peaceful transition.

Jolani, who was previously part of Islamist terror groups Isis and al-Qaeda, has sought to portray himself as a statesman and HTS as a reformed organisation. Many western governments still designate the group as a terrorist organisation — a critical roadblock to potential engagement, development aid and reconstruction support.

“Assad’s dictatorship caused immense suffering. With its end emerges a new opportunity for freedom and peace for all the Syrian people. This is also crucial for the broader stability of the region. The EU stands ready to work with the Syrian people for a better future,” said António Costa, president of the European Council.

Assad’s overthrow will have been particularly startling for Rome, Vienna and the six other EU capitals who this summer proposed that Brussels increase its engagement with the dictator’s regime.

Chart du jour: Desperate measures

Bond giant Pimco has warned the fallout from a trade war launched by US president-elect Donald Trump could drive Eurozone interest rates back down towards “emergency levels” as policymakers seek to soften the blow on the bloc’s struggling economy.

Diversification

The EU must invest more in undersea cables to protect itself against sabotage of its crucial infrastructure, the European Commission’s security and digital chief tells Laura Dubois and Javier Espinoza.

Context: Damage to data cables, flares fired from Russian vessels in the Baltic, cyber attacks and interference in elections: the EU is grappling with countless hybrid threats, compounding urgent needs to strengthen its militaries as war rages on its border.

“We are facing different hybrid operations. The intention is, of course, to destabilise, create chaos in Europe,” Henna Virkkunen, executive vice-president for technology and security, said in an interview where she also struck a conciliatory tone towards X owner Elon Musk, seeking to repair relations with the US billionaire who clashed with her predecessor.

Virkkunen said more investment into submarine cables was “certainly one of the priorities of the next year”, due to the recent damages. Finnish authorities are currently investigating the alleged sabotage of two cables in the Baltic Sea, where a Chinese vessel was last spotted.

The answer is to make it harder for saboteurs by building more cables, Virkkunen said.

“Number one is really that we are investing more into the connections. We shouldn’t be . . . too dependent on one source,” Virkkunen added. “So if there is damage in one cable, that we are not dependent on that.”

The commission last week announced €142mn additional funding for connecting cables, which will include cash for new sensors “so that we can better observe [the cables]”, she said.

The Finnish commissioner said the Connecting Europe Facility, the EU’s infrastructure fund, should finance “repairing capabilities and vessels”.

What to watch today

1. Eurozone finance ministers meet in Brussels, joined by UK chancellor Rachel Reeves.

2. Farming groups protest in Brussels’ EU quarter against the Mercosur trade deal, from 10am.

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