Why the EU debate on outsourcing solutions for migration is not going away

Good morning. A scoop to start: European capitals are discussing a new Nato defence spending target of 3 per cent of GDP to appease Donald Trump — but are struggling to work out how they would meet it.

Today, Laura previews today’s discussions among EU capitals about outsourcing solutions to migration, and our economy correspondent reports on Poland seizing the initiative on defence spending.

I’ll be moderating a panel today on improving competitiveness in the digital economy at the FT Tech Leadership Forum. Watch this discussion and more, including a keynote from European Commission executive vice-president Henna Virkkunen, online here.

Returning argument

Previously one of the last progressive holdouts when it comes to migration to the EU, Luxembourg has joined the camp of those in favour of “innovative solutions” to curb irregular arrivals.

Luxembourg’s interior minister Léon Gloden is in favour of so-called return hubs, proposing that rejected asylum seekers could be sent to Tunisia, he tells Laura Dubois.

Context: An increasing number of EU countries are looking to outsource the issue of migration to third countries. Italy signed a deal with Albania to process asylum claims. Others want to send people whose asylum applications have been rejected to “hubs” outside Europe to await deportation.

Gloden told the Financial Times he was sceptical about more extreme models, such as the UK’s failed plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda. “We consider that the Rwanda model is not feasible,” Gloden said. “The Italy and Albania model has failed,” he added.

“On the other hand, we have this agreement between Europe and Tunisia, which apparently is working quite well,” Gloden said.

Brussels has been paying Tunisia to prevent people from departing to Europe. That has lowered arrivals, but also sparked allegations of egregious human rights abuses.

Gloden said any return hub should be “governed by the respect of fundamental rights”.

“Tunisia, if they make efforts and if they accept to implement these principles, could be, for example, the country to establish such a return hub,” he said, adding the EU should have discussions with several north African countries.

The topic will be discussed over lunch today by home affairs ministers in Brussels, who are also set to greenlight the enlargement of the EU’s border-free Schengen area.

Most countries around the table now support roping in third countries to deal with migrants, but have been struggling to find countries that would be willing to accept their rejected asylum seekers while safeguarding human rights.

“You have to make sure that it is a win-win situation,” Gloden said. “It will definitely cost a lot of money.”

Chart du jour: Reset

There is agreement on both sides of the Channel that the UK and the EU should co-operate more closely — though UK citizens are most keen, according to a survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Pole position

With the Franco-German engine spluttering, the Polish side of the Weimar Triangle is seizing the moment to influence the EU agenda on its top priority: security, writes Paola Tamma.

“It’s crucial to have a European solution, and just convincing member states to spend a bit more is not enough,” Polish finance minister Andrzej Domański told reporters yesterday.

Context: Donald Trump’s return as US president has focused minds on increasing defence spending. Seven EU countries don’t meet Nato’s target of 2 per cent of GDP, and governments are considering ways of raising more funds if Trump revokes US security guarantees to its allies, as he has threatened to do.

Warsaw takes over the rotating chairmanship of the EU Council in January, and “defence and financing of defence will be a priority”, Domański said.

One option gaining traction among some formerly debt-averse governments is a special purpose vehicle that would tap the markets against budget guarantees provided by participating countries, open to EU countries, the UK and Norway. 

“If you create an SPV you have additional leverage possibilities. But prior to deciding, we need to have a very honest conversation with all member states, what’s acceptable for them. What’s not acceptable for us is business as usual,” said Domański.

Another option, pushed by EU defence commissioner Andrius Kubilius, is to raise more common debt. He wants to include this in an upcoming commission document laying out the options for defence funding, which is to be published in the next three months.

EU leaders are going to discuss the issue at an informal summit in Belgium on February 3.

However Germany’s lame-duck government won’t be able to commit ahead of elections in late February — and even then, German aversion to more common funding might be hard to overcome. 

“It could be quite difficult for them to take any decision now,” Domański acknowledged.

What to watch today

1. French President Emmanuel Macron visits Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw.

2. European Central Bank interest rates decision, at 14.15.

3. Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte gives a speech in Brussels, at 15.00.

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