will Erdoğan emerge as the big winner of the Syria crisis?

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan could end up being one of the biggest winners of the fall of the Assad regime after grappling with years of instability and isolation as a result of the Syrian civil war that has raged on his doorstep for 13 years.

Speaking on Saturday in Gaziantep, one of a string of border cities transformed by the conflict and the millions of refugees it created, the Turkish leader declared a “new diplomatic and political reality in Syria” after more than a decade of support for Syria’s armed opposition.

It remains unclear to what extent Ankara backed the lightning offensive of the past two weeks that on Sunday toppled the government of Bashar al-Assad. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Islamist group that led the assault, has a complicated relationship with Turkey.

But many analysts are convinced that Erdoğan, who once called the Syrian president a “butcher”, stands to gain politically and economically from his newfound position as the most influential foreign actor in the country following the fall of Assad, who was backed by Russia and Iran.

“After the Syrians, it is Türkiye that is the biggest winner here,” said Ömer Özkizilcik, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think-tank. “When everyone else abandoned the Syrians, when no other state supported the opposition, Türkiye did not give up on them,” he added.

Erdoğan threw his weight behind the wave of Arab uprisings that swept the Middle East in 2011, spurred by the hope that it would empower allies of his Islamist-rooted Justice and Development party (AKP). He stuck with them even as the US and other western powers that initially supported the rebellions gave up.

He welcomed more than 3mn Syrian refugees as “brothers and sisters” and provided arms and training for rebel groups battling the Syrian president.

When hopes for regime change faded as Assad was rescued by Moscow and Tehran, and Turkey faced growing spillover from the conflict, Erdoğan shifted his focus to battling Kurdish-dominated forces, who are viewed by Ankara as terrorists, as they made gains in north-east Syria.

More recently, Erdoğan made overtures to Assad, but was rebuffed. “The Damascus regime could never comprehend the value of the hand Turkey extended,” the Turkish president lamented on Saturday. 

Yet, even as it reached out to Assad, Turkey continued to support rebels and also supplied a lifeline to the HTS-stronghold of Idlib, for years the last remaining opposition-held province. It also administered a swath of territory elsewhere in Syria’s north and continued to back a group of rebels operating under the name of the Syrian National Army.

These links to opposition groups that, on Sunday, achieved their long-held dream of conquering Damascus, leave Erdoğan better placed than any other foreign leader to capitalise on their expected ascent to power — even if the situation also remains highly volatile and uncertain.

One big hope for Erdoğan is that the fall of Assad will allow many of Turkey’s roughly 3mn Syrian refugees to return. Their continued presence is deeply unpopular even among his own supporters. Turkish interior minister Ali Yerlikaya said last week, after the rebel capture of Aleppo, that 1.3mn of the Syrians in Turkey hailed from that city and that many “could not contain their excitement” about going back.

The collapse of the Assad regime could also change the balance of power in the complex relationship between Erdoğan and Vladimir Putin, who have backed opposing sides not only in Syria but also in other conflicts including in Libya. “Turkey is likely to adopt a more assertive posture in the region,” said Wolfango Piccoli, of the consultancy Teneo, in a note to clients, adding that it would also strengthen Ankara’s standing versus Iran.

Turkey, already struggling with high inflation and recession, would benefit from resuming full business and trade ties along the 900km Syrian-Turkish border. Its construction sector, which has close links to Erdoğan, could cash in on a rebuilding bill expected to run to hundreds of billions of dollars. “If peace is achieved, it’s a big opportunity,” said an executive at one of Turkey’s biggest construction firms.

Yet, despite the potential for Turkey, there is also huge uncertainty about what kind of government will fill the vacuum created by the Assad regime’s stunning collapse, and what kind of relationship it will have with its northern neighbour. 

While Ankara has never controlled HTS — which it classifies as a terrorist group — it had leverage when the organisation was holed up in Idlib with Turkey as its main route to the outside world. It remains unclear what influence it will retain over the group’s leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani now that he and his allies have taken the whole country.

Basic peace and stability are far from guaranteed, with the risk that further conflict could force other refugees to flee towards Turkey. İlhan Üzgel, a senior figure in Turkey’s staunchly secular opposition CHP party, voiced the fear that Erdoğan had “created the conditions for the emergence of a new Afghanistan” on its border.

With Turkey still associated in the minds of many Syrians with the Ottoman Empire — which hanged nationalist dissidents in the centre of Damascus — it will need to be careful not to overstep the mark in the coming weeks and months. Jolani has called for a national dialogue free from foreign interference. 

Ankara could stir resentment if it seeks to impose its will on the new authorities, said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish research programme at the Washington Institute. “The Ottoman legacy shapes the way Arabs will see Turkey coming in and becoming the new patron,” he said. 

Another big question is the role that Syria’s Kurds will play in a future government, and whether they will retain some of the hard-won autonomy they have gained in the north-east. 

Ankara would be wary of any negotiations between a new government in Damascus and Kurdish armed groups. It views the latter as terrorists with close links to its decades-old foe the Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK). Turkey’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, insisted on Sunday that any groups that were “an extension of the PKK” could not be part of talks on the future of Syria. 

The future role of the US, which has backed Kurdish forces as part of its fight against Isis and retains about 900 troops in Syria, also remains unclear. President-elect Donald Trump said on Saturday the Syrian conflict was “not our fight”. 

Sinem Adar, a fellow at the German Institute for International Affairs and Security in Berlin said that, with events moving so fast and so many aspects of Syria’s future still unclear, it was too early to say whether Erdoğan would eventually emerge triumphant from the events of the past two weeks. “It’s all still up in the air,” she said. “I’m not convinced that Turkey has full control of the situation.” 

Cartography by Steven Bernard