Why the Dutch are hoping to jump the trade queue with Trump

Good morning.

Today, our trade correspondent reveals the Netherlands’ “proactive” bid to scope out possible “one-to-one” trade relations with Donald Trump’s administration, and our Georgia correspondent explains why the Caucasus nation has paused its EU accession bid (six months after Brussels did).

Have a great weekend.

Proactive

Facing a second Donald Trump term in the White House, European Commission officials are fretting that member states could seek special favours from the US president rather than form a united front. They’re right to: the Dutch are already ploughing ahead, writes Andy Bounds.

Context: Trump has threatened to hit Europe with blanket trade tariffs of 10 to 20 per cent, but in the past has often hit goods selectively to punish specific countries, and spared those who did what he wanted.

While the EU is a single trading bloc and all 27 members follow joint rules, they have very different economies. A tariff on pharmaceuticals would hit the Netherlands, while one on wine would damage France, Spain and Italy.

So it might worry Brussels to learn that Dutch economy minister Dirk Beljaarts has already visited Trump’s informal trade adviser and is planning more trips to the US before the January 20 inauguration.

Beljaarts told the Financial Times he met Robert Lighthizer, the former US trade representative who drew up the tariff plans in September. “He’s very influential,” Beljaarts said. “So I took a very proactive approach there to make sure that we don’t wait and see what happens.”

He added that he wanted to “build the relationship and know what drives them”.

It helps that Beljaarts belongs to the Freedom party of far-right veteran Geert Wilders, who has long-standing ties to Trump. It is now the biggest party in the Dutch coalition government.

“Republican trade policy is more focused on bilateral agreements rather than multilateral,” said Beljaarts. “There will also always be a role for the EU there. But one needs to be very well aware that the preference is on the one to one.”

The EU has a large trade surplus with the US, and coping with looming tariffs has become a chief concern in Brussels. European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde has said that Europe should co-operate with Trump and buy American products to avoid a trade war.

“There’s a lot of work being done on several possible scenarios and countermeasures in the EU but also in the Netherlands,” Beljaarts said

No wonder newly reinstalled European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen used the first press conference of her new term to call for unity.

Chart du jour: Is France the new Greece?

France’s borrowing costs have surpassed those of Greece as investors fret about the government’s ability to pass a deficit-trimming budget — and its ability to survive at all. 

Nail in the coffin

Georgia’s parliament yesterday announced it would suspend the country’s EU accession process until 2028. While the process was already on ice, this sends a significant signal to its 3.8mn citizens, more than 80 per cent of whom support joining the EU, writes Anastasia Stognei.

Context: Brussels had frozen Georgia’s accession over a so-called foreign influence law enacted by the ruling Georgian Dream party, which was deemed to be breaching democratic principles.

Yesterday’s announcement saw GD openly oppose EU membership for the first time. In power since 2012, the pro-Russian party had previously promoted EU integration. It was in charge when Georgia enshrined membership as a goal in the constitution in 2017, and secured candidate status in late 2023.

In its statement, GD claimed that European officials used the bloc’s funds to blackmail Georgia. By 2028, Georgia will be “economically ready” to resume talks with the EU and join by 2030 “with dignity”, rather than “as a charity case”, GD said.

Within an hour of the statement yesterday, thousands of Georgians flooded Tbilisi’s central avenue. Protests also erupted in other major cities, as demonstrators waved Georgian and EU flags.

Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili said GD had “declared war on its own people” and halting accession puts an end to the “constitutional coup unfolding for weeks”.

Zourabichvili was referring to last month’s parliamentary elections in Georgia, which the opposition has said were rigged. The opposition has not taken up seats in parliament, which is functioning without almost half its members.

Meanwhile, Mikheil Kavelashvili, a former Manchester City footballer sympathetic to GD, has been nominated as its presidential candidate.

The European parliament yesterday passed a resolution calling for new elections, as well as sanctions against leading Georgian politicians, including oligarch and GD founder Bidzina Ivanishvili.

The exact extent of GD’s co-operation with Moscow remains unclear. But Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday praised the Georgian government’s “courage and determination in standing up for their beliefs”, while denying any official involvement.

What to watch today

1. Irish general election.

2. EU ministers responsible for research and space meet.

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