Death threat deepens rift between Marcos and Duterte dynasties

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.

The Philippines’ vice-president has in recent days taken her simmering dispute with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr to an astonishing new level: threatening to have him killed.

In an expletive-laden two-hour virtual briefing, Sara Duterte berated Marcos and said she had hired an assassin to kill the president, his wife and his cousin — who is also the speaker of the lower house of congress — if she were killed.

“I already talked to someone. I told him, if I get killed, go kill BBM, Liza Araneta and Martin Romualdez. No joke. No joke,” Duterte said at the briefing, without giving any specifics about the alleged plot to kill her. BBM refers to the president’s nickname, “Bongbong” Marcos.

Rambunctious politics are not new to either the Philippines or the two families, the country’s most prominent political dynasties. Marcos’s father Ferdinand was a dictator. As president, Duterte’s father Rodrigo instigated a violent campaign against drugs that resulted in an investigation by the International Criminal Court.

The two made an alliance for the 2022 presidential election but that has since unravelled, partly due to disagreements over their approach to China as well as investigations into the vice-president’s alleged misuse of government funds.

Analysts, government officials and the military say the feud comes at a challenging time for the Philippines, which is locked in a fierce dispute with Beijing over territorial claims in the South China Sea and faces a crucial midterm election next year.

“We are facing greater challenges that require the strength of a united country and armed forces,” General Romeo Brawner, the armed forces chief, said in a statement after Duterte’s threat.

Duterte has attempted to walk back her threat after a backlash from Marcos and his allies, saying her words were taken out of context.

But her assassination threat “just gave the Marcos administration the legitimacy to go after her”, said Jean Encinas-Franco, a political-science professor at the University of the Philippines. She said Duterte could face arrest, while the vice-president herself has also raised the possibility of being impeached — which could scupper her chance of a presidential run in 2028. Marcos on Friday said he does not support impeachment.

The rift between the two politicians emerged shortly after they came to power. Marcos’s policies differed from his predecessor, most prominently on the South China Sea. Duterte pursued closer ties to China, while Marcos has taken an assertive stance against Beijing’s claims in the disputed waters.

Marcos’s government has hinted at co-operating with the ICC over the probe into Duterte, who pulled the Philippines from the court after it began investigating him.

Their transactional alliance “gradually descended into open warfare . . . when Congress began cutting down her budget and investigating [her]”, said Antonio Contreras, a political analyst.

Sara Duterte resigned in June as the secretary of education, citing “concern for teachers and Filipino youth”. She has described the investigations into her alleged misuse of funds at the education department and the office of the vice-president as being politically motivated and denied any wrongdoing.

In recent months, the rhetoric has become more dramatic. In October, the vice-president said she “wanted to cut his [Marcos’s] head off” and that she would dig up the remains of Marcos’s authoritarian father and throw them in the sea — in comments reminiscent of her outspoken father.

The elder Duterte, meanwhile, has repeatedly accused Marcos of being a drug addict. After his daughter’s threat over the weekend, he called on the military to correct what he called Marcos’s “fractured governance”, though he stopped short of calling for a coup.

Marcos — who until the assassination threat had largely kept quiet on the criticism from the Dutertes — has vowed to fight back. “If it is that easy to threaten the life of a president, how much more for ordinary citizens?” Marcos said in a video statement this week. “Such criminal intent should never be tolerated.”

Following Duterte’s threat, the Philippines’ National Bureau of Investigation has subpoenaed her. The police filed a complaint against Duterte and some of her staff for a separate incident in Congress.

The May 2025 midterm election will be crucial for both leaders — as a referendum on the president’s popularity and as a measure of the Dutertes’ clout. Both Marcos and Sara Duterte have taken a hit to their trust ratings amid the ongoing rift, though the vice-president has seen a sharper decline.

Victor Andres Manhit, chief executive of the Stratbase Group consultancy, said Marcos would probably retain his majority in the midterm elections and a stronger showing by him could “end the political support base of the Dutertes”.

“It will also hurt Duterte’s chances of a presidential run in 2028,” he said.

Surveys have shown Duterte and broadcaster-turned-senator Raffy Tulfo as the most popular presidential candidates for 2028. The president’s older sister, Imee Marcos, and his cousin Romualdez have also been mentioned as candidates. The current president cannot run again due to a one-term limit.

Asked on Friday if he had reached the point of no return with Duterte, Marcos said: “Never say never.”