US struggles to respond to Syria turmoil during presidential transition

US officials and lawmakers fear a resurgence of Isis in Syria in the wake of the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, as they respond to the Middle East upheaval while grappling with their own political transition.

The sudden end of Syria’s brutal decades-old dictatorship has been cheered across the political spectrum in Washington, but it has caught Joe Biden’s administration on the back foot as it prepares to make way for Donald Trump’s inauguration.

From the White House to Capitol Hill and Trump’s resort in Mar-a-Lago there is anxiety that the security vacuum in Syria could be filled by Islamist terrorist groups that have been kept in check since coalition forces forced Isis out of the area five years ago.

“We don’t want to give Isis an opportunity to exploit what’s going on. They love nothing more than ungoverned space,” John Kirby, a spokesperson for the White House’s National Security Council, told reporters on Tuesday.

With Syria relegated to the backburner of US foreign policy priorities for years, Washington is suddenly facing urgent questions over its relationship with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the one-time al-Qaeda affiliate whose rebels now rule the country, and whether to maintain the roughly 900 US troops stationed in the north-east.

Biden’s ability to address the challenges of Syria’s regime collapse is limited with little more than one month left in the White House; meanwhile Trump may not be in office yet but has made clear in social media statements that he does not want America “involved” in new turmoil there.

The US has listed HTS as a terrorist organisation and appears reluctant to swiftly remove the designation, which would pave the way for a more open dialogue with the group and, ultimately, a removal of US sanctions.

US officials said they see the designation as potential leverage and would not remove it without guarantees from HTS on issues such as political rights, the flow of aid, the fate of chemical weapons stockpiles and the fight against terrorism.

But US demands could shift with Trump in power, adding to the potential uncertainty.

“If HTS remains in power and continues to be designated, it’s going to be very difficult to rebuild the country,” said Natasha Hall, an analyst at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. “There needs to be some kind of negotiations framework and checklist in order to de-designate HTS. And we’re in a race against time.”

The Biden and Trump teams have been in close touch about Syria and the wider Middle East, say US officials, including through regular consultations between US national security adviser Jake Sullivan and his Trump-team counterpart Mike Waltz and others.

Chris Van Hollen, a Democratic Senator who is on the foreign relations committee, said: “It’s a pretty toxic brew, just given all the competing forces in Syria, which is why I just think we need to keep our eye on the ball when it comes to the major threat to our security, which would be a resurgence of Isis.”

A particular concern is the fate of some 9,000 Isis fighters being held in prisons in north-east Syria. The jihadi group has launched attacks on the facilities, which are controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, in an effort to free its members, and US officials fear the militants could try to exploit the current security vacuum.

General Michael Kurilla, head of US Central Command, visited Syria on Tuesday, where he met with US service members and SDF members for an update on efforts to “prevent ISIS from exploiting the current situation”, Centcom said.

The visit came after the US on Sunday attacked a gathering of Isis fighters in central Syria, and officials said they expect to carry out more operations.

Under Biden the US has maintained about 900 US troops in eastern Syria who work with Kurdish forces to contain Isis, but Trump is deeply sceptical about the presence of US forces in Syria.

During his first term, the former president threatened to remove the troops but was dissuaded by the Pentagon and allies in Congress, such as South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham. It is unclear whether he will want to maintain a US presence during his second term.

“I think there will be an assessment as to whether or not those troops should remain,” Republican congressman Mike Turner, chair of the House intelligence committee, told CBS on Sunday.

But Van Hollen said it was important to maintain America’s “partnership” with Kurdish forces who were also resisting Isis, and warned if Trump sought to withdraw US troops “that would, among other things, give more oxygen to Isis”.

Speaking to Fox News on Monday evening, Waltz did not address the future of US forces in Syria but voiced doubts about HTS. “It is good that Assad is gone but it clearly leaves a vacuum and our jury is out on this group HTS,” he said, adding: “Our core interests are Isis, Israel, our Gulf Arab allies.”

Meanwhile, a new round of thorny diplomatic talks are in store for Biden and Trump with Syria’s neighbours including Jordan, Israel — which has seized Syrian territory and pounded military targets in the country — and Turkey, which has launched attacks on Kurdish forces in northern Syria since Assad’s ouster.

The US has tried to dissuade Ankara from attacking the Kurdish-led SDF. But Turkey sees the presence of the group, which seeks to establish an independent Kurdish state, as a threat.

Trump forged a close relationship with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan while in office, but the goodwill was undermined by bilateral issues, and his influence over the issue remains unclear.

Bruce Riedel, an analyst at the Brookings Institution who spent 30 years at the CIA, warned: “There’s got to be some kind of agreement between the Kurds and the Turks over what’s going to happen next, or there’s going to be another civil war in north-east Syria, which would be highly destabilising, not just to Turkey and Syria, but also to Iraq.”